Project Overview
Agricultural pesticide use varies widely by crop and region and may contribute to localized increases in preventable healthcare utilization (e.g., asthma, respiratory distress). Public health agencies and Medicaid programs need data-driven tools to target preventative interventions, such as Integrated Pest Management (IPM), under constrained budgets.
This project builds a county-level predictive risk model to identify regions in the United States where pesticide exposure is associated with elevated healthcare burden, enabling targeted, high-ROI public health and IPM investments.
Objectives
- Predict county-level prevalence of asthma (CASTHMA) and COPD from pesticide use, cropland composition, and demographic/health confounders.
- Produce county-based risk estimates for preventable health burden.
- Support resource allocation, policy targeting, and research—not individual diagnosis or legal evidence.
Data Sources
- CDC PLACES — County-level health indicators (asthma, COPD, smoking, obesity, diabetes)
- USGS / EPA — Pesticide use estimates by county and year
- USDA Cropland Data Layer — Crop coverage and land use
- US Census ACS — Demographics (age, income, race/ethnicity)
Target years: 2018–2019 (CDC PLACES county-level releases 2020 and 2021).
Explore the Results
The interactive map shows risk levels for asthma and COPD by county across the U.S., from a model that uses pesticide use and related county data (2019 view). Popups include CDC PLACES observed prevalence where available.
Model specifics — datasheet & model card links, metrics tables, fit and equity figures.
Open Interactive MapDisclaimer
This work does not seek to definitively prove causation between respiratory illness and pesticide use; such associations are supported by prior literature. The model is associative (ecological design); county-level associations do not imply individual-level causation. Estimates are for population-level planning and research only—not for individual diagnosis or legal evidence.